Can India Make Its Way To Super Eight

Everybody knows that the ICC World Cup final is going to be held on 28th April but for Indians the final of the World Cup cricket is today against Sri Lanka. India take on Sri Lanka in what everyone knows is a do or die game. Whatever the scene will be but the previous calculation of all the teams in Group B suggest that a victory by even one run or of the last ball over Sri Lanka will take India through to the next stage.

Suppose Sri Lanka scores 250 and India successfully chases the target off the last ball, then in such a scenario Sri Lanka will end up as the Group leader with a NRR of +3.0136. India will end up with a NRR of +1.6730.

When we cast our view to the whole World Cup point calculation, we find that teams in Group B are chasing each other with a minimal margin except Bermuda. Till now Bermuda has played 2 matches without winning a single match. Its NRR is –5.000. By adding both the matches, Bermuda has scored 234 runs in 100 overs against 734 in 100 overs. Altogether, the team holds 0 points in the whole scenario.

On the other hand, Bangladesh has even played its two matches against Sri Lanka and India. The team has won only a single match against India with the net run rate of  –2.002. By adding both the matches, the team has scored 309 runs in 94.3 overs against 501 runs in 96.0 overs, holding 2 points in its bag.

Since Bangladesh will be playing its last league match against Bermuda after India-Sri Lanka game, theoretically it will have a chance to better India’s NRR, but to do this Bangladesh has to produce something unthinkable.

As per Sri Lanka is concerned, the team is among top in the league. It has played 2 matches and has made 2 victories with the net run rate of +4.594. The scoreboard shows that Sri Lankans have maintained 631 runs in 96.0 overs against 190 runs in 96.0 overs, after holding 4 points in its sack.

Conversely, India too has played two matches against Bangladesh and Bermuda, but the team lost one of its matches, that was against Bangladesh but created the history against Bermuda after making 413 runs in the ICC World Cup Cricket. Even though, India has the situation of do and die. Its net run rate is + 2.507 and the scoreboard shows that the team has made 604 runs in 100 overs against 348 runs in 98.3 overs. Altogether, the team holds 2 points in the whole scenario.

India’s NRR will remain around +2.507 even if it registers a win over Sri Lanka off the narrowest margin possible - batting first or second. But, there will be a slight change in Bangladesh’s target in the last league match depending upon the victory margin for India, but it is obvious that the target will only become more difficult for Bangladesh as the victory margin for India increases.

India can still make it to Super-8 despite losing to Sri Lanka on 23rd. But for that Bangladesh has to lose to Bermuda.

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Sonia Suri is associated with <a href=http://www.teamindiaperformance.com/>Team India Performance</a>, a complete site for the performance of Indian team in WC’07. <a href=http://www.teamindiaperformance.com/mustwin.html>Indian team</a> is going through the must win phase in WC.