The Future Growth of the Global Photovoltaic Industry

In the past 30 years, the photovoltaic industry maintained a growth rate of 20 percent on the average, while in the last five years, with an average annual growth rate of as high as 35 percent. As of 2007, the global PV power installed capacity is 9.1 million kilowatts, the growth rate go up to 33 percent. in 2007, capacity of 2.2 million kilowatts is installed, and the growth rate is 40%.

on the optimistic view , in the next 30 years ,the pv industry will maintain a growth rate of more than 25 percent, while the pessimistic view is that this judgement is not based on reality.

Optimistic faction believes that as the technological progress and industrial expansion, photovoltaic power generation costs will be quickly reduced, thereby it bring a fundamental demand for the expansion, the process will run through the entire century. The latter part of the growth rate will decline, it is because the base PV will be huge.

Pessimistic view is base on the biggest obstacles for photovoltaic industry is the high cost. In the Western developed countries, they mainly go through various kinds of financial subsidies to support the development of the industry, such as United States allow advance photovoltaic project with the financial and tax incentives, and support the Internet price of photovoltaic for 21.29 cents / unit.

According to our judgement , base on the cost of photovoltaic, the next three to five years, in some time and some areas, photovoltaic will have cost advantage. U.S. Environmental Co-op non-profit organization says, the cost of solar power will be equal with the traditional fossil energy for power generation costs. With the decline of the cost for solar power, while coal, natural gas and the rising cost of nuclear power, United States will come to the intersection by 2015.From Comprehensive judgement, the photovoltaic industry will have a high growth period.